Methodology for risk assessment at the conceptual design stage of offshore structures during the offshore fields development

Abstract

The article carried out a qualitative risk assessment taking into account the developed scale "Probability / frequency and using "The Classifier of consequences" for several options for the offshore fields development. "The Consequence Category Classifier" takes into account environmental, financial, life, health and time risk criteria affecting construction and operation. The risk analysis was carried out taking into account the existing regulatory documentation and based on the analysis of the causes of the occurrence of factors that determine the outcomes of accidents, taking into account all the features of the cases under consideration for the life cycle stages: Design work, Production and testing, Use (operation). The degree of agreement in the performance of the experts group work was made based on the calculation of the Kendall rank coefficient. Subcategories were determined simultaneously for all the considered field development facilities according to the results of the performed calculations in risk categories. a Risk register was compiled based on the developed scale "Probability/Frequency" and the developed "Classifier of Consequence Categories". The risk register included 72 risks. The “Risk Index” was determined as a result of calculations. As a result, based on the results of a qualitative risk assessment, a "Risk Matrix" was developed based on the methodology presented in the Register Rules. In this case, the Alarp model or the principle of reasonable sufficiency was used. This risk assessment allows you to determine: the degree of the risk importance, prioritize different categories of risks, choose the best option with the lowest "Risk Index".