Assessing ship manoeuvring safety in waterway systems by relative navigational risk

Abstract

Given the rapid pace of shipping development, the safety of ship navigation has attracted much attention from both academia and industry. However, traditional approaches based on static methods do not always give reliable assessment results, and real-time assessment methods are limited by a short forecast horizon. Therefore, the aim of the paper is to review the peculiarities of assessing the safety of ship manoeuvring in waterway systems by relative navigational risk. Research methods: modelling, systematisation, analysis, generalisation, grouping, synthesis. In the research process, an algorithm is proposed to analyse the navigation risk, which is based on the combination of fuzzy analytical hierarchy process and cloud model. Within the algorithm, three interrelated stages are identified and described in detail: creation of a system of navigation risk indices to assess the safety of ship manoeuvring, expert assessment of risk factors, and construction of a cloud model for the combination of qualitative and quantitative risk assessments. The obtained results allow us to conclude that the proposed algorithm is able to describe the process of risk propagation of key factors influencing it in ship navigation systems.