The application of Erlang model for process simulation of boundary monitoring of ships proceeding through the Kerch-Yenikalsky Strait

Abstract

This article investigates the peculiarities of the Kerch-Yenikalsky Channel (KEC) passage. The Kerch Strait is one of the most intensively used sea routes in the Russian Federation, which results in a constant flow of ships and requires organized traffic.

The Kerch Strait throughput capacity was calculated from statistical data on the number of vessels that pass through it on a daily basis. The number of vessels passing through the Kerch Strait increases noticeably every year.

The increase in the number of vessels passing through the Strait creates additional problems related to safety of navigation and environmental sustainability of the region. For example, an increase in the number of ships can lead to an increased probability of collisions and accidents, as well as to the deterioration of the environmental situation in the area of the strait.

In this paper, an algorithm is developed and the factors affecting the KEC passage process are analyzed. The Erlang model is used as a model. This model allows to carry out simulation modeling of the process of customs control providing quantitative data. To build the model, statistical processing of data on the passage of customs control was performed. As a result of simulation modeling the following results were obtained:

1.The maximum throughput capacity of a given control section was determined;

2.Calculated the optimal composition of the customs control vessels.